The International Monetary Fund insists on undercutting the government’s growth forecasts, setting the bar at 2% for both this year and 2026, compared to the preliminary budget projections of 2.2% this year and 2.4% in 2026. In the medium term, it lowers the targets even lower to 1.6% in 2030.

For the eurozone, it predicts a rate of 1.2% for this year and 1.1% for 2026, and maintains 1.1% for the medium-term horizon of 2030. At these rates, if confirmed, Greece’s convergence with the EU will continue, but in small steps, and will be delayed.

The forecasts were made in the Fund’s autumn World Economic Outlook report, presented on Tuesday in the context of its meeting in Washington. Compared to last April’s forecasts for Greece, the Fund left unchanged its 2025 forecast at 2%, while slightly raising its forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2%.

On inflation, the Fund’s forecasts are identical to those of the Bank of Greece for 3.1% this year, compared to the government’s 3% forecast (harmonized index). For 2026, it predicts that inflation will decline to 2.5%, compared to the government’s 2.2%. In the medium term, it sees the index at 2% in 2030. The balance sheet problem is receding, according to the Fund’s forecasts, as the deficit is forecast at 5.8% of GDP this year, 5.3% of GDP in 2026 and just 3.1% of GDP in 2030. It is returning to its levels in the first post-bailout years, which were considered healthy. Growth, accompanied by imports, has worsened the picture in recent years.

Unemployment is forecast to fall to 9% this year and 8.4% in 2026. These forecasts are improved compared to last April, when it estimated that unemployment would reach 9.4% this year and 9% in 2026.

National Economy and Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis is in Washington to participate in the IMF annual meeting. The main message in his statements and contacts will be that “in a period of international uncertainty and liquidity, the Greek economy remains resilient, presenting consistently upward performance.”

Source: Ekathimerini.com