By Dr. Panagiotis Sfaelos∗

The Taiwan Strait is of immense geopolitical importance as it is strategically located between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan affecting international shipping and world trade in the Pacific Ocean. It is a point of friction between China and Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan as part of its territory. Since 2020, China has increased its military exercises around Taiwan, and since late 2020 has been sending military aircraft across the “central line” in the Taiwan Strait on an almost daily basis. In August 2022, in response to the then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China conducted a series of military exercises. Taiwan has increased its military spending and in December 2022 announced an increase in conscription in response to the greater threat posed by China. Especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwanese fears are growing that China might attempt something similar in Taiwan. Taiwan government officials are studying the war in Ukraine and trying to prevent a similar development in their country. In fact, there are not a few officials in Taiwan who are worried about the possible cooperation of Russia and China in a possible intervention in Taiwan.

According to the “one China principle”, the People’s Republic of China has always considered Taiwan as a Chinese terriory which was withdrawn form mainland control. In 1979, China’s leadership shifted from the policy of armed liberation of Taiwan to a new strategy of peaceful co-existence by refraining from regular military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. However, the People’s Republic of China has never renounced the use of force – if necessary – to achieve its unification with Taiwan. These elements were formalized in the Anti-Secession Law of 2005. This law commits Beijing to do everything it can to achieve a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. It states, however, that in the event of Taiwan’s “secession” from China, or if China concludes that the possibilities for peaceful unification have been exhausted, “the state will use non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect its sovereignty China and its territorial integrity”.

Washington is worried about the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, since Beijing’s military capabilities have grown and its intentions appear increasingly aggressive. Concerned about Washington’s attempt to create the conditions for Taiwan’s permanent independence from China, Beijing has significantly stepped up its air and sea operations around Taiwan. China has conducted major exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing stresses that Taiwan’s unification with China is a key element of its national goal of restoring China’s place on the world stage. President Biden emphasizes that the US will defend Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan. This US stance is dictated by the increasing competition between the US and China, which – along with other powers (BRICS) – is challenging US hegemony. Possible Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan would have wider political and geostrategic consequences that would clearly upset the international balance of power. Also, any disruption of orderliness is expected to have an impact on the economic level throughout the planet as Taiwan’s economy is extremely important. It is a fact that much of the electronic equipment used by millions of people around the world every day is powered by microchips manufactured in Taiwan.

In the event of an invasion, semi-conductor factories could be destroyed or come under Chinese control, which would also have huge economic consequences, as control of the vast industry of the world’s most advanced semiconductors would give Beijing a huge and global economic advantage. A key policy implemented by Taiwan to counter the shrinking of Taiwan’s sovereignty by China is the New Southbound Policy, launched by President Tsai Ing-Wen in 2016. This policy was designed to accelerate Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen its ties both with countries in its neighborhood and in the wider region. This policy is based on a regional strategy that effectively balances dependence on China while strategically promoting multi-faceted international cooperation, despite the pressures exerted by China.

Taiwan and the 18 countries participating have risen to the New Southbound Policy. Several western countries have recognized the imperative to turn to Asia and bridge the gap between the countries that straddle the Indian and Pacific Oceans. However, Taiwan’s relations with Asian countries often receive limited attention mainly due to the reluctance of some countries to engage openly with Taiwan, mainly due to concerns related to China’s reaction. However, it is important to note that lack of extensive media coverage does not equate to inaction in this regard. The New Southbound Policy provided Taiwan with a vital conduit for building partnerships across South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Taiwan’s partnerships with countries in this region, particularly with India and Australia, have proven to be of great importance. In recent years, Taiwan has been striving to become a reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly through its efforts to strengthen medical diplomacy during the COVID-19 pandemic and promote supply chain diversification in response to countries that seek to reduce their dependence on China. International cooperation also helps other countries better understand Taiwan’s problems in relation to Chinese aggression. In the absence of diplomatic recognition, this may well be Taiwan’s only path to greater international recognition.

In conclusion, maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait is important not only for Taiwan’s independence but also for the West as a potential increase in China’s power in this region would upset the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific while also having enormous costs for the global economy. The West must therefore do all it can to prevent a war in Southeast Asia.

∗ Dr. Panagiotis Sfaelos BA, LLB, LLM, PhD is a Lawyer, Internationalist and Journalist, Secretary General of the Greek Section of the Association of European Journalists and Vice President