Moldova’s EU referendum will prove crucial for the country as the country faces a major demographic problem, writes Cristian Gherasim.

Cristian Gherasim is an analyst and journalist with over 15 years of experience focusing on Eastern and Central European affairs.

Nearly a third of Moldova’s population has left the country over the past three decades in search of a better life abroad, making the country one of the worst-hit countries by the demographic decline seen throughout Eastern Europe.

Sunday’s vote (20 October) could prove an opportunity to solve the demographic challenge, as potential EU membership would spur economic growth and help keep talent inside the country.

Demographic decline

An analysis done by the Chisinau-based Institute for Development and Social Initiative (IDIS) Viitorul shows that from 1991 until now, Moldova’s population has decreased by almost 1,5 million people. If the trend continues, Moldova could return to its 1950 population level.

The most recent census, conducted in 2014, recorded the country’s population at 2,8 million – a decrease from the 4,3 million recorded in 1989.

Many Moldovans decided to pursue better job opportunities abroad as increased poverty and low wages drive one in three Moldovans to consider leaving the country, recent surveys indicate.

The significant loss in population has not only started causing labour shortages but also a brain drain of professional workers in key fields such as healthcare.

Way forward

Standing as Europe’s poorest country is a determinant factor in fueling migration in the country. While the process of joining the EU might be long, the prospect of economic uptake is clear.

Romania, Moldova’s neighbour, serves as an example of how EU membership brought a steady rise in living standards. Since joining the EU in 2007, Romania’s purchasing power went from 43% to 78% of the EU average.

According to Moldova’s Economy Minister Dumitru Alaiba, obtaining the EU candidate status and opening the accession talks in such a short time has already signalled to investors that the country can be a reliable business partner.

Furthermore, the free movement of goods and people that comes with EU integration could drive economic development, creating jobs, and may not only prompt fewer Moldovans to leave but likely some of them to return to their home country.

A negative outcome of the EU referendum, in turn, might exacerbate its demographic problem as more people would see no other option but to move abroad in search of better opportunities.

Eastern member states can help             

Given their historic similarities, some countries from Eastern Europe have shown their full support behind Moldova’s EU bid.

Romania has been particularly supportive due to its close historic ties and its role in helping to counter Russian influence in Moldova.

Recently, Romanian MEP from the European People’s Party (EPP), Rareş Bogdan, spearheaded an initiative in the European Parliament to secure €45 million to help combat disinformation in Moldova.

Poland, which will take over the rotating presidency of the EU Council in January 2025, has already voiced its support for accelerating Moldova’s EU accession.

Joining the EU will be a lengthy and complex yet necessary process for Moldova as it looks to develop its society, grow its economy and reverse its demographic decline.

Source: Euractiv.com